The next outbreak? We’re not ready | Bill Gates | TED

Yeah Bill Gates - terrible guy. Spending money trying to eradicate diseases that kill poor people. What's worse, here's him in 2015 ( ▶ this video ) wasting money and faffing on about some pandemic. As if that's going to happen, and even if it does the pandemic won't affect rich countries in any way.

"Global Catastrophic Risk Survey", 2008 [pdf] link Includes discussion of a "biggest natural pandemic". Posted to HN, if not discussed, on Oct 2, 2016. link The question of GCR has been raised numerous other times on HN, though admittedly more recently of late: link Infectious disease features prominantly among discussions of GCR: link Even software executives have suggested concern, this example from 5 years ago: ▶ this video As has the US military, from 2017: link Economic impacts of pandemic have seen significant scholarly treatment, here looking at 1990-2018: link Less black swan than head-buried ostrich, it might appear.

Gates gave a prescient TED talk in 2015 [1] in which he describes the risk of a global pandemic and the general lack of preparedness. The Gates foundation has also been working for years to help eradicate diseases like polio and malaria [2][3]. Given his expertise in this area, it would seem worthwhile to listen to what he has to say rather than dismissing him as just a "billionaire industrialist." [1]: ▶ this video [2]: link [3]: link

He totally saw this coming from a mile away and actively tried to warn the world about it. Years ago. ▶ this video

We’ve known that pandemics were going to get more likely as international travel got faster and cheaper, and population density rose and absolute population numbers rose. These factors have been part of the horror stories that epidemiologists tell each other late at night when the lights are out: “so it was a normal year, and airlines reduced the cost of India to USA flights by 20%,” horrified gasps (the audience knows where this story is going) Pandemic might have seemed improbable to you as a layperson, but the medical community has been bracing for this for decades. The less seriously you take it, the less seriously your politicians take it and the less seriously pandemic preparation gets funded. ▶ this video

The failure goes well beyond just the federal government too. One example being NYC leaders and even health officials encouraging New Yorkers go participate in parades and other large gatherings through Feb and even into March, with messages of defiance against Coronavirus concerns: link Edit: Removed ventilator comment as that specific claim seems to be misleading, and it's not something particular to NY. Many governments weren't prepared for a surge. The U.S. as a whole had plenty of advanced warning about ventilator[1] and pandemic preparedness[2]. 1. link 2. ▶ this video

It's not really about wealth, though. No one is asking or cares what the Walton heirs would have to say. It's the fact that Bill is smarter than the people in charge of our institutions. And he has a lot of experience in this domain. And has been warning about exactly this problem for many years. Indeed he warned that pandemics were our biggest blindspot and threat. E.g., See his TED talk from 2015: ▶ this video

We are not prepared, but there was people warning about it. See this Ted talk from Bill Gates, 5 years ago. It's impressive how the details are similar to coronavirus. ▶ this video