The EU Has Orbits, and the UK Fell Out of All of Them
CGP Grey7 HN recommenders · recommended in 8 months, 2019-2023
0 views · 7 years ago · explainer · dated
CGP Grey's six-minute explainer of the relationships the UK could have with the EU, based on Barnier's slide, shown as orbits of different closeness. It explains why the UK's red lines ruled out the closer options.
HN recommends it as the quickest clear overview of the Brexit options, though later commenters note it predates the final outcome.
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9 comments from Hacker News
The EU is a huge economic block, and Britain's single most important trading partner. They can be whatever the fuck they like to be. And the EU was exceptionally friendly and patient towards the UK which demanded all the benefits with none of the responsibilities. UK's entire chain of options were known to everyone with half a brain even before Brexit started. Described succintly in this chart: link and explained very briefly in this video: ▶ this video
> The EU wants the UK to be subservient to the Commission for ideological, political and economic reasons You mean, the UK was one of the three largest powers in the EU with all the power to influence its policy and direction which it did. Instead, the UK adopted the attitude of "we are a superpower, you owe us everything, we owe you nothing" to which the planet's largest economic union and one of the planet's largest markets calmly responded, "u wot mate?" About a year into the whole Brexit brouhaha the EU said, look, here are the various agreements and levels of agreements we have with all the countries [1] (taking from the amazing short overview here [2]). You don't want Norway style because "it's EU with extra steps", you don't want Switzerland-style because "same thing", you don't want Ukraine or Turkey-style because you don't want to be bound by EU trade agreements etc. At every step of the way UK's reaction was "these Brussels democrats are smothering our great independent nation, they must give us everything we want". That's not how negotiations work. Especially not with an economic block of ~450 million people who are your biggest trading partners. And after all that puffing and chest-beating, almost seven years into the whole Brexit ordeal UK also "suddenly" discovered the whole Northern Ireland border issue. Which tells you a lot about the competence of your government. So, no. UK went from being the country with the largest influence on EU policy to an outside cou
Can you provide some examples? As far as I know there are many countries that cooperate with the EU but are not a part of it, based on many levels of compromise. (This video proposes we replace the european flag's stars with asterisks for all the exceptions and compromises! link ) In fact the UK took several of those types/levels of cooperation into consideration and rejected each. (Here's a quick video overview of that ▶ this video )
Well, that's the point, no? The UK decided to leave but refused all the existing forms of bilateral agreements. The country mentioned by the comment you responded to all have some form of bilateral agreements with the EU, there are a lot of ways to be a close partner with the EU without being part of the union. Switzerland is part of the Schengen area and we regularly renegotiate (and vote on) new agreements. Norway is also part of the Schengen area, but also part of the EEA (European Economic Area). Turkey is part of the European Custom Union. The UK decided to go its own way instead. This interactive SVG gives a good overview: link . CGP Grey did a great video in 2019, though it's of course a bit outdated now: ▶ this video .
Everything was predicted a long time ago. All the friction at the border is the inevitable consequence of the choices the successive British governments made. I like to show this as a demonstration: ▶ this video .
See this is where it gets truly silly. You may not be wrong about some form of soft-Brexit, or EEA status, but whichever level of closeness you consider that is not "hard Brexit" would have required dropping one of the UK's "red line" issues. Anything else that was not Theresa May's deal needed the EU offering cake and cookies for free. It wasn't so much she couldn't sell it as the hardliners of the Tory party wouldn't take it. For 3 years the UK's negotiating position has been "la, la, la, not listening", whilst asking for the impossible (or cake). Michel Barnier, the EU's chief negotiator summarised it all beautifully in a single slide he put out in about 2016 or 17. Each level of softer Brexit available is ruled out by a UK red line. Should you want a breakdown, CGP Grey did a short video about "that slide". ▶ this video
> crash the country out of the European Union because no one was willing to work with Theresa May. The possible was agree Theresa May's deal untouched, drop some UK "red line issues", remain in the EU, or no deal Brexit (crash out). That's it. Except many didn't think that good enough, or it wasn't in Britain's interests (no kidding) and we've spent 2 years trying to tolerate them all indulging in this political act of national self-harm. Our international status is "laughing stock". Surprisingly, the impossible has not yet become possible! EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, published a single slide in 2017 that summarises the whole mess well. CGP Grey has a video on this: ▶ this video
It is not really a negotiation. It's a pick and choose for the UK, the problem is that their red lines does not correspond to any "orbital" around the EU. Budging on any of them for the EU is not an option to keep the single market intact and other systems intact. Sure they negotiate the exit tab and such but for a deal the size with the EU a couple of tens of billions over the period it is supposed to last just gives political points when talking to the media. This video [0] from CGP grey using a slide by the EU chief negotiator from december 2017 defining the EU "negotiation tactic" which they haven't stepped away from yet gives an overview to the issue. [0]: ▶ this video
This 6 minute video by CGP Grey explains the different possible relationships with the EU available to the UK, and why the UK has so far rejected all of them ... ▶ this video